Interesting to read that one expert believes that on average they forecast fall in values of 6 percent for prime offices, 5 percent for logistics and 4 percent for residential. With retail (unsurprisingly) the worst hit at 12 percent. The lending terms offered to the different sectors and the landlords whose tenants are in different sectors will start to vary drastically. It will require some creative thought about how portfolios are put together in future. Its interesting to see how the pattern of what is a quality tenant from a lending perspective has changed over the years with supermarkets surely making a resurgence and most other retail moving online, logistics will be even hotter property than before. Time will tell.
Syndication is slow and capital value forecasts are bleak, but CMBS transactions remain liquid and real estate is expected to retain relative value.